Interrelationships between societal and ecological outcomes from restoration

Task 2.1: Identify correlation patterns in the ecological and societal outcomes of restoration projects (INRAE, UCB)

We will quantify the relationships between selected metrics of societal and ecological outcomes from restoration (from WP1). Paired correlations will be assessed between all ecological and societal metrics. Based on descriptive analyses, restoration sites will be categorized according to different factors, such as the type of restoration measure or objective, the catchment size or the restoration project size, and the number of surrounding restored sites within the sub-catchment. We will use various descriptive methods to identify the spatial co-occurrences between the ecological and societal metrics, such as pairwise correlations, and statistical clustering methods. We will also analyse the temporal dynamics of the relationships between ecological and societal outcomes as a function of restoration age. The repeated post restoration samplings will allow us to explore the evolution through time of synergies and trade-offs between selected metrics of societal and ecological outcomes. The information about the different metrics and their relationships will be synthesized and illustrated with visualization tools (e.g. maps, trajectory plots, spider diagrams). 

Task 2.2: Identify the explanatory factors of trade-offs between ecological and societal outcomes (INRAE, WEnR)

We need to understand why and how synergies and trade-offs appear to optimize ecological and societal outcomes of restoration. To this aim, we will develop a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) describing the different potential causal links between large-scale drivers and pressures and locally observed outcome metrics produced in WP1, taking advantage of the DPSIR framework. The thorough statistical testing and quantification of these relationships performed in WP3 and WP4, coupled with literature review and expert knowledge of stakeholders (through WP6) will allow refining the underlying conditional probabilities of the BBN. Finally, with WP3 & WP4, we will identify the environmental factors driving the observed trade-offs among and between metrics of societal and ecological outcomes, along with their potential changes under restoration scenarios.

Task 2.3: Optimise synergies between ecological and societal outcomes thanks to scale-explicit designing of restoration projects (INRAE, WEnR)

We will investigate whether local outcomes from individual projects are potentially enhanced by larger-scale planned restoration (as top-down strategy), and reciprocally, to which extent bottom-up strategy can increase the overall outcomes at sub-catchment and catchment scales (Hyp. 4). To do so, we will use GIS data processed in WP3, such as river status (e.g. GloRiC), vegetation cover of the riparian buffer zone/corridor along the river (e.g. Green Linear Elements), and the WFD ecological quality score (e.g. EQR score/ratio), to quantify the ecological outcomes at an ecosystem level. Social media and socio-economic data (e.g. touristic statistics) will be used to assess the societal outcomes at larger scales. We will determine how the bottom-up/top-down approaches can help upscale restoration results and we will identify the most relevant scales of restoration for optimising social-ecological outcomes from restoration. This framework will provide stakeholders with scale-explicit results and recommendations via products developed in WP5.